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Weekend Show – Dana Lyons & Mike Larson – Investing Strategies For Q4; Markets, Precious Metals, Copper, Cryptos, Emerging Markets 

Cory
October 5, 2024

 

Welcome to The KE Report Weekend Show! On this weekend’s show we feature two of our favorite generalist guests to provide trading strategies for Q4 and into 2025.

 

There are still a lot of opportunities across a wide range of markets, but of course we get their thoughts on different metals and resource markets. 

 

We hope you all enjoy the show this weekend!

 

  • Segment 1 and 2- Dana Lyons, Fund Manager and Editor of The Lyons Share Pro kicks off the show sharing insights on the current market trends and his investing strategies for Q4. Topics include recent momentum shifts in major indexes, opportunities in value sectors, and the outlook on commodities and cryptocurrencies. Dana also discusses emerging market prospects and China’s monetary policy impact.
  • Click here to visit the Lyons Share Pro website and learn more about Dana’s investment services. 

  • Segment 3 and 4 – Mike Larson, Editor in Chief at MoneyShow, wraps up the Weekend Show discussing the current state of the equity markets, commodity strength, and investment opportunities. Mike addresses recent market momentum, geopolitical concerns, and volatility factors, including the ongoing situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies. He is seeing opportunities in a wide range of areas especially in precious metals and copper.
  • Click here to find out about the upcoming MoneyShow conferences. 

 


Dana Lyons
Mike Larson
Discussion
10 Comments
    Oct 05, 2024 05:12 AM

    As far as the Silvercrest- Coeur deal, and the fact that Coeur has made money but 7 of its last 70 quarters, got a $122 million cash windfall to its balance sheet and saved Mitch Krebs sorry ass for his abysmal performance in management this side of the Millenium, Silvercrest owners will never know unless another suitor comes along. It’s been a 34 bagger, and a 6 figure Roth IRA gain for me. Right up there with Western Silver and Minefinders, and to a lesser extent Silver Standard thanks to David Morgan Silver Investor newsletter in 2000-2001

      Oct 05, 2024 05:41 AM

      Great trade Marty! That’s impressive.

        Oct 05, 2024 05:00 PM

        Yes, agreed, great trading Marty!

        I was in and out of mostly partial positions in Silvercrest about 45 times or so since it was spun out of Silvercrest Mining back in 2015, and cumulatively it has been a nice double digit multi-bagger return for my portfolio as well (but not 34 – more like 11 or 12). However, I sold completely out of my spinout shares during their very early period, and didn’t get back in until they’d started hitting those series of bonanza grades with Las Chispas in 2016, and then it consolidated down through 2018 and I had to average down, so I missed some of that early rerating higher and that period hurt my overall multiples. However, initially I wasn’t impressed with the other 2 projects which they drilled prior to Las Chispas in late 2015 and early 2016, and neither was the rest of the market. It wasn’t until mid-2016 that they really started nailing it over and over again at Las Chispas, and that was what got me back into it.

        Still, Silvercrest has been a standout win in my portfolio, a company I rarely had to worry about, and remained one of my heavier weighted stocks (typically at 3%-4% of my portfolio — sometimes less and sometimes more for brief periods of a couple months), over the last 8 years once getting the position reinitiated. Lot’s of good smaller swing-trades and position-trades in it over the years too.

        –>> Regardless — That’s really an amazing journey you had though Marty — holding it for the entire journey, and trading around the position along the journey as well. Really well done sir!

        Are you going to let your shares, or part of your shares convert over to CDE, or are you going to ring the register on the trade and cash out and redeploy into another stock inside your retirement account?

      Oct 05, 2024 05:39 PM

      Should have been the other way around but who would want CDE?

        Oct 05, 2024 05:17 PM

        I feel like CDE gets a hard rap, and they have had some operation challenges the last few years, including a fire at one of the mines that wasn’t really their fault, but it’s still a pretty high-torque mid-tier silver-gold producer.

        They have been working on their Rochester Expansion for years now and did a lot of work in late 2022 on improving their crushing of ore, and then in 2023 on the leach pad and Merill Crowe plant, and just launched the new 3-stage circuit this year and got commercial production going for the next phase of operations just in the last couple months. Rochester is going to be a significant mine contributing in their portfolio as well.

        With Wharf they’re going to run out of ore at one point, but I believe they’ll eventually take over Dakota Gold and restock mine feed stock for Wharf for many years to come.

        If they do end up keeping Silvercrest, without a competing offer coming in from another big-boy producer, then I could see a larger company eventually making a move on Coeur Ming to pick up their portfolio that would then include Las Chispas.

        Personally, I’ve done well trading around a core position in Coeur Mining for many many years now, and think it offers quite a bit of torque for a mid-tier PM producer. Now through this acquisition it is beefing up into a much larger mid-tier producer or smaller senior producer.

    Oct 05, 2024 05:59 AM

    Hi Shad, I do believe that there will be a counteroffer for Silvercrest, I thought that immediately when I read the lowball offer, 18% is a joke. Companies are like people they always want the other company to start the trend before they jump in. (by the way I have read your substack article that you put out on this deal this morning)

    I didn’t know that Silvercrest was stacking physical metal that may have helped to lead to their downfall. Having physical sitting in a storeroom trying to influence the price of silver is something you don’t want to tell your neighbors.

    In the mining business it is eat or be eaten especially when you are such a sumptuous morsel. I feel that way about Sibanye Stillwater, they have a huge supply of precious metal, and they can’t takeout PGE when it is such a perfect fit and a steal for them. They have let Glencore get close to their doorway, LOOK OUT! DT

      Oct 05, 2024 05:17 PM

      I hope you are right – I certainly don’t want to hang on to it if Coeur takes it over.

      Oct 05, 2024 05:45 PM

      I wrote down my thoughts on the Silvercrest acquisition by Coeur Mining in my most recent Substack article, weighing the pros and cons, and what the new pro-forma company will be like, and why I think a counter-offer by another company is still a legitimate possibility.

      Overall, I’m disappointed that Silvercrest is being taken over as it was a larger weighted position for me, and even though I’m thrilled for Coeur Mining as a shareholder of them as well, I’d rather have seen SILV stay a separate entity, for a number of reasons outlined in the article below:

      ________________________________________________

      Merger and Acquisition Opportunities In The Metals Resource Stocks – Part 5

      Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz (10/05/2024) – Silvercrest $SIL.TO $SILV / Coeur Mining $CDE

      https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/merger-and-acquisition-opportunities-562

    Oct 06, 2024 06:56 AM

    De-Dollarization is becoming a reality, we are entering a multi-polar World, not only do we have The Bric’s but Argentina and Brazil announced that they will share the same currency. The World is turning away from U.S domination where if you disagree with Washington, they either invade you, impose sanctions or outright steal your money like in the case of Russia. DT

    Oct 07, 2024 07:53 AM

    One of many “naked short” covering day. Nice to have friends….